The group of students who are poised to leave school after Covid-19 are facing a dilemma that could "set a generation back” as young people compete for fewer places on university courses, especially in the subjects which are popular. Although the pandemic caused inflation in A-level grades, which led to universities taking on more students, institutions are now retrenching even though applications have ballooned. Teachers and parents who spoke to The Guardian said students who had been predicted to achieve A* grades were receiving a series of rejections from institutions which normally would offer them places.
Stephen Morgan, the opposition spokesman for schools, said, “This government’s repeated failure to plan for our children’s future threatens to hold back a generation.” He added that young people who sit for exams this summer have “endured two years of chaos and disruption to their education. Yet ministers’ complacency is leaving them with the additional worry that getting good grades won’t be enough to move on to the next stage of their lives."
Although university applications have increased by 5% this year, there is no certainty that popular candidates will secure a place. Universities belonging to the Russell Group of research-intensive universities have over-recruited students in the past two years, due to the students achieving higher teacher-assessed grades. This year universities want to go back to pre-pandemic numbers so they can manage the students better. However, university leaders blame the falling tuition fee in real terms and inflation for making it more difficult for them to take on more students.
To ensure numbers remain manageable, universities are making fewer offers, leading to disappointments for some of the candidates. Candidates such as Daniel Merrett, 17, a student in a school in Portsmouth, received an A* in maths and is predicted to obtain A*A*A in further maths, physics, and computer science, yet was rejected by his top four preferred universities. Other students who applied to "insurance" universities found that these universities had raised the offer level, for example, to AAA rather than ABB, making them no longer a good option for a backup choice.
An education specialist said high-tariff universities were tightening up recruitment after years of expansion, demonstrating that this situation was not a one-off blip, but a long-term trend that could affect their ability to get into prestigious universities. University leaders are making more cautious offers after seeing higher predictions by teachers than expected. Students have long used predicted grades to make initial applications and usually receive offers based on achieving certain exam results.
One school teacher called the situation “illogical,” especially considering the achievement of these students, since many of them had achieved a similar standard in previous years and have been able to obtain their desired places. Larissa Kennedy, the president of the National Union of Students UK, has called the scenario "absolutely appalling" for the students, with "access as a closed door, exploring the myth of the broken education system."
According to Nicholson, students are unlikely to succeed in "trading up" during the clearing process as the most competitive courses and universities are already full. For those considering deferring their offer until next year, it is probable that offer-making will still be lower.
However, the number of school-leavers in England deferring or taking a year out is predicted to decrease following the government’s changes to the student loan system. From 2023 onwards, students will be required to make repayments for 40 years after graduation, instead of the 30 previously stipulated for students embarking on courses this year.
A spokesperson for Ucas noted that the move from exams to teacher-assessed grades during the pandemic has resulted in an increasing number of students meeting the conditions of their offer, particularly in the most competitive courses, such as law, engineering, medicine, and dentistry. Additionally, the number of students accepted on full-time undergraduate courses has grown from 154k in 2019 to 177k in 2021, in line with a 5% increase of UK 18-year-olds applying this year, as well as 6k more students holding deferred entry places.
The Ucas report also indicated that the rise in university applicants for 2021 makes competition for places at several universities a highly-competitive course of action. Meanwhile, the Department for Education spokesperson noted that the government is dedicated to making certain that pupils with aptitude and talent are given the opportunity to study at university. The administration is committed to collaborating with the higher education sector to ensure students access high-quality courses with favourable outcomes.